Let America Open!

Since the beginning of the concern over the Coronavirus, policy makers have been quick to myopically consider only the guidance of Epidemiologists, while failing to factor in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th order public health impacts of the effects of their decisions, like 50 million people being unemployed. A full spectrum analysis requires aggregating and considering data from a wide variety of sources. cardiologists, oncologists, economists, criminologists, sociologists, psychologists, and more must be consulted and their voluminous research poured over.

We have begun the process of doing that for you here.

What is clear is that the mortality and harm that will occur to humans, that isn’t being considered by Epidemiologists, as a result of depression level unemployment and economic devastation, will be measured in the millions of people. These effects will be far greater and last much longer than the direct effects of Coronavirus.

We must combat both the Coronavirus and stop the economic fallout that is currently occurring as a result of state and local lockdowns.

If you have additional data and studies regarding these impacts, please send them to us as a message via Twitter or Facebook.

UNEMPLOYMENT

30.3 million people have filed for unemployment in the last 6-weeks, according to the Bureau of Labor. (4-29-20) — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.toc.htm

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis estimates there will be 52 million people newly unemployed by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2020. This would correlate to a 32.1% unemployment rate. — https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2020/march/back-envelope-estimates-next-quarters-unemployment-rate

33.5 million people have filed for unemployment in the last 6-weeks, according to the White House & Bureau of Labor. (5-7-20) — https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/april-jobs-report-will-show-high-cost-states-shutting-economies/

FORGONE MEDICAL TREATMENT FOR CHRONIC CONDITIONS

An estimated 157 million, with 81 million having multiple, have chronic conditions. — https://nationalhealthcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/AboutChronicDisease.pdf

CVS says patients in April received fewer new prescriptions, as many have started fewer new treatments and seen doctors less frequently — a concern especially for patients who have chronic conditions such as diabetes and heart disease. — https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202005072102/cvs-warns-of-nonvirus-health-crisis-wsj

Though guidance by state will vary and change over time, the vast majority of states have had orders in place that have significantly affected access to routine medical appointments and screenings. — https://www.ascassociation.org/asca/resourcecenter/latestnewsresourcecenter/covid-19/covid-19-statement

SUICIDE AND MENTAL HEALTH

A 2014 Oxford University study estimated that the Great Recession led to 10,000 additional suicides in Europe and North America from 2008-2010. — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24925987

Taiwanese researchers found a direct link between unemployment and suicide, a link that can linger for up to three years after unemployment has already retreated. Each 1% rise in unemployment leads to one additional suicide for each 100,000 ppl. A 10 percent spike in unemployment could mean some 30,000 additional suicides in the United States. — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20003993

Those who are unemployed can be more than twice as likely to attempt suicide. — https://www.samhsa.gov/data/sites/default/files/2011MHFDT/2k11MHFR/Web/NSDUHmhfr2011.htm

The 2008 recession led to a 20% to 30% increase in the relative risk of suicides. — https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/02/the-link-between-unemployment-and-suicide/

European suicide rates increased by 6.5% between 2007 and 2009 and remained elevated until 2011. This comes out to an additional 7,950 suicides. — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24925987

In Taiwan, for every 1% rise in unemployment, male suicide rates increased by 3.1. — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20003993

Suicide is ∼2.5 times more likely among the unemployed compared with the employed. — https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/317/7168/1283.full.pdf

Unemployment is linked to significant increases in mental health problems. — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5544462/

Over half of U.S. adults (56%) report that worry or stress related to the coronavirus outbreak has caused them to experience at least one negative effect on their mental health and wellbeing, such as problems with sleeping or eating, increased alcohol use, or worsening chronic conditions. — https://www.kff.org/report-section/kff-health-tracking-poll-late-april-2020-economic-and-mental-health-impacts-of-coronavirus/

In April 2020, there was an over 1000% increase in the calls to the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration mental health hotline. — https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-health-202/2020/05/04/the-health-202-texts-to-federal-government-mental-health-hotline-up-roughly-1-000-percent/5eaae16c602ff15fb0021568/

A study of the Great Recession that began in late 2007 found that for every percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there was about a 1.6 percent increase in the suicide rate. — https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24973571

Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute created models that suggest if unemployment amid the coronavirus pandemic ends up rising 5 percentage points to a level similar to the Great Recession, an additional 4,000 people could die from suicide, and up to 18,000 if unemployment increases by 20 percentage points. — https://www.texasstateofmind.org/uploads/whitepapers/COVID-MHSUDImpacts.pdf

A study found a 1.6% increase in deaths of despair for each point increase in the unemployment rate. — https://wellbeingtrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WBT_Deaths-of-Despair_COVID-19-FINAL-FINAL.pdf

A study found that there would be an increase of up to 154,037 deaths of despair over the next decade due to economic fallout from policies to lock down the economy. — https://wellbeingtrust.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/WBT_Deaths-of-Despair_COVID-19-FINAL-FINAL.pdf

SUBSTANCE ABUSE

Unemployment correlates to increased risk of substance abuse. More than twice as many people who are unemployed struggle with addiction than those who are full-time workers. (18% of unemployed people use illegal drugs vs 8% of full-time workers). — https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/july-2013/exploring-the-link-between-drug-use-and-job-status-in-the-us#endnotes

Unemployment correlates to increased alcohol abuse. — https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/irel.12019

A 1 percent increase in the unemployment rate could mean a 3 percent rise in opioid overdose deaths and more than a 6 percent rise in emergency room visits. — https://www.nber.org/papers/w23192.pdf

A link between unemployment and illicit drug abuse is established. — https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0955395917300877

A 1% point increase in a county’s poverty rate is associated with a 1.7% increase in the opioid overdose death rate. — https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/259261/ASPEEconomicOpportunityOpioidCrisis.pdf

Alcoholic beverage sales rose by 55% in late March, when many states and public health officials urged residents to stay at home, compared to sales in 2019. — https://news.usc.edu/168549/covid-19-alcohol-sales-abuse-stress-relapse-usc-experts/

Meadows Mental Health Policy Institute created models that suggest if unemployment amid the coronavirus pandemic ends up rising 5 percentage points to a level similar to the Great Recession, an additional 4,800 people could die from drug overdoses, and up to 22,000 if unemployment increases by 20 percentage points. — https://www.texasstateofmind.org/uploads/whitepapers/COVID-MHSUDImpacts.pdf

A study found that a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment increased drug related deaths by 3.3% (and 3.9% for opioid related deaths). —https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167629617303387

HEART DISEASE

Those between ages of 51 and 75 are 35% more likely to have a heart attack if unemployed. — https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/1392492

Nearly 18.2 million Americans have Coronary Heart Disease (CAD). If only 1 in 1000 of that population die due to delayed treatment or lack of treatment options due to supply chain issues, that could correlate to 18,200 additional deaths. — https://www.cdc.gov/heartdisease/facts.htm

A link is established between unemployment and increased instances of heart disease. — https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24727560/

Compared to those who had not lost a job, people who lost four or more jobs were 63% more likely to have a heart attack. People who lost one job had a 22% increased risk. — https://www.webmd.com/heart/news/20121119/unemployment-toll-heart

CANCER

Nearly 23.4 million Americans have or had cancer. If only 1 in 1000 of that population die due to delayed treatment or lack of recurrence detection as a result of the lockdowns and/or non-essential designations, or supply chain problems, that could correlate to 23,400 deaths. — https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/cancer.htm

A study from Harvard demonstrated that 260,000 people died of cancer as a direct result of the 08-10 recession. — https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-excess-cancer-deaths-atun/

Routine screenings for breast cancer detect 200,000-300,000 cases annually. — https://www.cancer.org/content/dam/cancer-org/research/cancer-facts-and-statistics/breast-cancer-facts-and-figures/breast-cancer-facts-and-figures-2019-2020.pdf

Routine screenings for colorectal cancer detect roughly 140,000 cases annually. — https://www.cancer.org/cancer/colon-rectal-cancer/about/key-statistics.html

Routine screenings for prostate cancer detect roughly 200,000-300,000 cases annually. — https://www.cancercenter.com/cancer-types/prostate-cancer/about

Routine screenings for melanoma cancer detect roughly 96,000 cases annually. — https://www.webmd.com/melanoma-skin-cancer/news/20200218/melanoma-cases-rising-in-us

Routine screenings for cervical cancer detect roughly 12,000 cases annually. — https://www.cancer.org/cancer/cervical-cancer/about/key-statistics.html

CRIME

A one percent increase in the unemployment rate will increase the property crime rate by 71.13419 per 100,000 inhabitants. — https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53294/theeffectsofunemploymentoncimerates.pdf

A one percent increase in the unemployment rate will increase the violent crime rate by 14.3 per 100,000 inhabitants. — https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53294/theeffectsofunemploymentoncimerates.pdf

A one percent increase in the poverty rate will increase the violent crime rate by 23.9 per 100,000 inhabitants. https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53294/theeffectsofunemploymentoncimerates.pdf

Unemployment will lead to an increase in murder rates. — https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53294/theeffectsofunemploymentoncimerates.pdf

DOMESTIC VIOLENCE AND CHILD ABUSE

A 1% increase in the unemployment rate leads to a 20% increase in reported child negligence. — https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171103085315.htm

Since March 17th, 8 children have been admitted to Cooks Children related to child abuse. 3 have died. For perspective, Cooks typically sees 6 child abuse deaths a year. (4-13-20) — https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/tarrant-county/3-year-old-fort-worth-boy-fatally-injured-easter-morning/287-f05393af-f696-4488-9df9-b9140b4e7600

A 1% increase in female unemployment increases the incidence of domestic abuse of up to 4.6 percent. — https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/polopoly_fs/1.679188!/file/2013_C1_2_Wilson.pdf

A one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate led to a 25 percent in-crease in neglect and a 12 percent increase in physical abuse. — http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/Gender_2017/de_cao_e6099.pdf

Risk of multifaceted-multirelationship violence is greatest among those who are unemployed. — https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/208346.pdf

Women with generally low educational attainment, specifically less than high school, have comparatively higher risk of both isolated and multifaceted-multi relationship violence. — https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/208346.pdf

Unemployment during the 2008-2010 recession led to increased rates of domestic violence calls in many localities. — https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/fl-xpm-2010-08-16-fl-domestic-violence-economy-20100815-story.html

According to a non-profit entity in central Hubei province of China, reports of domestic violence have nearly doubled since cities were put under lockdown. — https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005253/domestic-violence-cases-surge-during-covid-19-epidemic

Stay-at-home orders amid pandemic create a “perfect storm for child abuse,” according to a welfare worker. — https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders-child-abuse/

MODELING

A Taiwan CDC study that came out on March 19, 2020 traced 1000 contacts of 32 people with COVID 19 and found zero cases of transmission outside of the household or family. (3-18-20) — https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20034561v1

New German data shows that 15% of people in one region have been infected by COVID-19. The fatality rate was only 0.37%. (4-9-20) — https://www.bccourier.com/these-are-the-first-lessons-of-the-heinsberg-study/

Stanford Doctors say overall covid death rate may be as low as 1 in 10,000. (3-24-20) — https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?redirect=amp

True random antibody sample of households in Iran found that 21-33% of people have been infected resulting in a fatality rate of roughly 1 in 1,000. — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewbd.toc.htm

Japan study suggests real infection rate 400x to 800x the reported rate. Early April, Japan had a 3% antibody rate. — https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20079822v1.full.pdf

Dr. Donald Yealy, chair of emergency medicine at University of Penn Medical Center, the major hospital provider for Western PA with 40 hospitals and 87,000 employees, made the case for a death rate of .25% far lower than 2-4% from the early days of the pandemic. (4-30-20) — https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/04/umpc-argues-covid-19-not-as-deadly-as-feared-says-its-hospitals-will-shift-back-to-normal.html

6% of Miami-Dade’s population (165,000 people) have antibodies indicating a past infection by Coronavirus according to a study by the University of Miami. (4-24-20) — https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242260406.html

It was estimated that between 2.5% and 4.2% of the population was infected in Santa Clara County, far higher than officially detected rates. (4-14-20) — https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v2

25% of teachers and students at a high school in Oise, France tested positive for the antibodies. (4-18-20) — https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.18.20071134v1

A study in Los Angeles County found that 4.1% of adults have the coronavirus antibodies. (4-20-20) — https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county

Of more than 7,000 infections across China, only two were found to have occurred outside. (4-20-20) — https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053058v1

California sends back 500 ventilators to National Strategic Stockpile. (4-6-20) — https://www.sfgate.com/coronavirus/article/California-to-send-500-ventilators-on-loan-15182045.php

Boston study tests 408 homeless people. 36% have the virus. (4-12-20) — https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.12.20059618v1

BUSINESS SUSTAINABILITY

Number of days a typical business could pay from its cash balance, without inflows:
Restaurants: 16 days
Repair and Maintenance: 18 days
Retail: 19 days
Construction: 20 days
Personal Services: 21 Days
Wholesalers; 23 days
Metal & Machinery: 28 days
Health Care Services: 30 days
High-Tech Manufacturing: 32 days
Other Professional Services: 33 days
High-Tech Services: 33 Days
Real Estate: 47 Days

https://www.jpmorganchase.com/corporate/institute/document/jpmc-institute-small-business-report.pdf

In some states the number of excess deaths this year – or deaths above the typical level – is greater than the number of reported coronavirus deaths:

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-death-count-may-be-even-higher-0f393842-a9ec-413e-adec-6ecc3218806f.html

ECONOMIC & FISCAL

The paid leave mandate in the Families First Coronavirus Response Act has led to job losses —  https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/03/worried-businesses-dodge-paid-leave-163988

TUBERCULOSIS

Lockdowns could result in 1,367,300 additional global deaths due to tuberculosis. —http://www.stoptb.org/assets/documents/news/Modeling%20Report_1%20May%202020_FINAL.pdf

CHILDREN

An estimated 42-66 million children could fall into extreme poverty as a result of the lockdowns this year. — https://unsdg.un.org/download/2081/30314

School closures are affecting 1.5 billion children worldwide. Though many parents and societies are ready to step in and homeschool or use distance learning technologies, many children will fall through the cracks and lose vital months of maximizing their cognitive development. — https://unsdg.un.org/download/2081/30314

Economic hardship experienced by families as a result of the global economic downturn could result in hundreds of thousands of additional child deaths. — https://unsdg.un.org/download/2081/30314

Rising malnutrition is expected as 368.5 million children across 143 countries who normally rely on school meals for a reliable source of daily nutrition must now look to other sources. — https://unsdg.un.org/download/2081/30314

As many as 30 million children’s lives are in danger from secondary health impacts with 26+ million children at greater risk of being exposed to other deadly diseases for lack of immunization, 5+ million children at a greater risk of suffering from increasing malnutrition — an increase of almost 40% from current levels, and an additional 100,000+ children that could die from malaria, a 50% increase from current levels. — https://www.wvi.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/COVID-19%20AFTERSHOCKS-%20SECONDARY%20IMPACTS%20THREATEN%20MORE%20CHILDREN’S%20LIVES%20THAN%20DISEASE%20ITSELF_0.pdf

ELDERLY

Nursing homes account for 40% of U.S. deaths from COVID-19. — https://freopp.org/the-covid-19-nursing-home-crisis-by-the-numbers-3a47433c3f70

FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN

According to the World Food Programme, due to the Coronavirus, an additional 130 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by the end of 2020. —https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-chief-warns-hunger-pandemic-covid-19-spreads-statement-un-security-council

CIVIL LIBERTIES

Big Tech is leveraging the Coronavirus pandemic to advance data collection efforts, raising additional privacy concerns and how that data may be used in the future and by who. — https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/30/bovard-google-is-pulling-off-a-massive-data-heist-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

Two women were arrested in an undercover operation for trying to make a living and put food on their table while offering home beauty and salon services, in Texas. — https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8260193/Two-Texas-women-arrested-undercover-sting-offering-beauty-salon-services-home.html

CORONAVIRUS DURATION

Experts from the University of Minnesota believe that the Coronavirus could last 18-24 months until either herd immunity is established with 60% to 70% of the population, or more, or a vaccine is developed. — https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/default/files/public/downloads/cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf

DOCTORS, NURSES, & HEALTHCARE PROFESSIONALS

Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the healthcare sector shed 1.4 million jobs for the month of April. — https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

DEMOGRAPHIC MORTALITY DATA

NYC Coronavirus demographic data. — https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-05082020-1.pdf

EFFICACY OF LOCKDOWNS AS AN INDEPENDENT VARIABLE

Experts at AEI have analyzed the data and make the case that lockdowns are not an effective means by which to combat Coronavirus and that “curve flattening” was occurring with voluntary social distancing actions. —https://www.aei.org/articles/lockdowns-dont-work/

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